Preview: UFC Paris Prelims

Welterweights

Sam Patterson (13-2-1) vs. Trey Waters (9-1)

Odds: Patterson (-170); Waters (+140)

As I mentioned on the preview show, this is the biggest welterweight matchup the UFC could have booked. Unfortunately, that dad joke setup is the most notable thing about this clash between the 6-foot-4 Englishman and 6-foot-5 American.

Patterson looks, and moves, a lot like a welterweight version of his countryman Luke Barnatt. Like “Bigslow,” Patterson is impossibly tall and rangy for his weight class, not terribly athletic, but technically sound—aside from the nearly ubiquitous tall-man mistake of keeping his head too high and pulling straight back to avoid strikes. Those defensive flaws were on full display in his UFC debut, which saw him get clocked by Yanal Ashmouz in just 75 seconds.

Patterson mercifully moved up from lightweight after that knockout loss, where he has rattled off three straight wins by first-round finish. He now slots into the UFC welterweight division as a fighter who presents instant matchup problems for anyone thanks to his physicality—but suffers from it at the same time. He hits extremely hard but is so hittable himself that any extended striking exchange is a nail-biter. As a grappler, he has a dominant top game and excellent chokes, but struggles to get fights to the canvas in the time, place and position of his choosing.

Waters, as mentioned, is even taller than Patterson, and suffers from some of the same issues. He is quicker and more fluid than the Brit, but also more of a wild card, especially on the feet. Where Patterson seems well aware of his strengths and deficiencies and is at least trying to fight to his best advantage, Waters feels like a fighter who is still figuring out his own game—unsurprising, considering he has only 10 professional bouts under his belt.

This kind of fight, with two relatively inexperienced combatants who have real offensive skills but huge vulnerabilities, is a nightmare to predict, because if you call it wrong, you’re probably going to be really wrong. The only thing my preview co-host Keith and I agreed on was that this thing ends in Round 1. I said Patterson by submission; he predicted Waters by knockout. Flip a coin, then buckle up and enjoy this one for however long it goes.



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