Preview: UFC Paris Prelims

Middleweights

Brad Tavares (21-10) vs. Robert Bryczek (17-6)

Odds: Tavares (-220); Bryczek (+190)

Don’t look now, but Tavares is actually starting to age. Since joining the UFC out of Season 11 of “The Ultimate Fighter” a decade and a half ago as a baby-faced 22-year-old, he has carved out a remarkably solid and consistent career as the de facto gatekeeper to the middleweight Top 10. He has accomplished it by being a bit of a trailblazer. Remember that in 2010 the Hawaiian “just scrap” brawler archetype was still very much a thing, and Tavares, with his well-rounded skills, decent but not overwhelming power, and even his decision to relocate his camps to Las Vegas long before Covid changed the training map, was one of the first notable fighters to upend those expectations.

Even if he was never the second coming of Ray Cooper (the father or the son) or Stephen Palling, however, Tavares’ game has always required a solid chin, and his decline over the last two or three years can be attributed to a corresponding decline in his durability. Going back as far as his first-round blitzing by Edmen Shahbazyan, but more noticeably since then, Tavares has been rocked more easily, and taken longer to recover from, blows that he once shrugged off. Aside from that gradual and unsurprising slide, Tavares is pretty much the same fighter he was a decade ago.

That is not great news for Bryczek, who will have a second chance at his first UFC win on Saturday. The 30-year-old Pole is a good-sized, powerfully built middleweight who carried a respectable win streak into his debut against Ihor Potieria last February, but he seems like a fighter who is accustomed to overwhelming foes with power and aggression, and does not have much to fall back on if that fails. He swings hard with both hands, and has some powerful kicks, but his tendency to lunge and overswing leaves him vulnerable to disciplined counter strikers as well as takedown attempts.

This should be a fairly straightforward win for Tavares unless his gradual decline has accelerated overnight. He is probably too slick and savvy to be caught by one of Bryczek’s haymakers, and while he sometimes neglects his wrestling, the takedowns should be there for him if he wants them. The pick is for the 37-year-old veteran to pick up his first finish since 2018, by Round 3 TKO after lumping Bryczek up for most of the first two rounds.



Jump To »
Gomis vs. Ruchala
Sy vs. Ribeiro
Tybura vs. Delija
Fernandes vs. Hardwick
Patterson vs. Waters
Tavares vs. Brycek
Gustafsson vs. Fakhretdinov
Bannon vs. Hughes