Preview: UFC Paris Prelims

Welterweights

Andreas Gustafsson (12-2) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-1-1)

Odds: Gustafsson (-115); Fakhretdinov (+100)

The UFC Paris lineup is still in flux, especially after the 11th hour addition of Fernandes vs. Hardwick, but if this fight really ends up being the second out of 14, that would be a travesty. Not only is this Sweden vs. Russia scrap a near guaranteed banger, but it has a sneaky amount of divisional relevance in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions.

Gustafsson is, frankly, a surprise. Debuting at UFC 316 in June as a 34-year-old with barely a dozen pro fights on his ledger, the Contender Series alum announced his arrival with a dominant victory over 2-to-1 favorite Kalinn Williams. Even the optics of the win upended expectations; while Greco-Roman wrestling does not often translate well to MMA, “Bane” grounded Williams several times with ease, and despite his muscular build and the torrid pace he imposed, Gustafsson was the far fresher fighter in Round 3, thrashing the American on the way to two 10-8 scores.

Gustafsson’s game does not involve much nuance. It’s all hard punching, hard wrestling and hard knees and elbows in the clinch, but if it was enough to get past a dangerous fringe contender like “Khaos,” Fakhretdinov had better be paying attention. The Dagestani has a deeper and more conventionally technical skill set: He is a fluid kickboxer who likes a high pace and, at his best, mixes in his offensive wrestling at just the right time to disrupt his opponent’s plans.

Thus far Fakhretdinov has been a combination of good, smart and lucky in the Octagon. In his last three fights, he has gone 2-0-1, but his decision win over Carlos Leal in his last outing was frankly a robbery, and his majority draw against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos saw him get absolutely mauled in Round 3. Fakhretdinov is smart and well-rounded, but his margin for error has all but disappeared as he has graduated to a higher class of opponent.

That gives this clash the feeling of a matchup where something’s got to give, as both fighters are under a bit of pressure to keep up what seems to be unlikely levels of success. The pick here is for Fakhretdinov to sock away the first two rounds, then hold on for the decision win as Gustafsson surges late, but scores could be all over the place.



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Gomis vs. Ruchala
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Gustafsson vs. Fakhretdinov
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